Rasmussen Post-Debate Poll: Romney Leads By Two Points

Rasmussen Poll: Romney ahead 49-47 percent in first, full post-debate survey​

Mitt Romney has the support of 49 percent of voters nationwide, compared to 47 percent for President Obama, according to a Rasmussen poll based entirely on interviews conducted after the first presidential debate Wednesday.

Two percent of those surveyed prefer some other candidate and 2 percent are undecided, according to the first daily presidential tracking poll for Sunday.

The results are based on nightly interviews and reported on a three-day rolling average basis. The numbers show a modest bounce for Romney following his strong performance in the debate with President Obama.

“It remains to be seen whether (the bounce) is a temporary blip or signals a lasting change in the race,” the polling firm said.

Scott Rasmussen, the firm’s founder and president, notes “incumbent presidents often struggle in the first debate and do better in the second.”

The firm also released a poll Sunday showing Romney closing the gap on the president in 11 swing states.
In those states, Obama earns 49 percent support, compared to Romney’s 47 percent.

Rasmussen said the race is the closest it has been since September 29 and is Romney’s best showing since the middle of last month.

However, the survey is based on findings from the previous seven days, so most of the responses were prior to the debate.

Rasmussen said the 11 states were won by Obama in 2008 and thought to be competitive in 2012. The states collectively hold 146 Electoral College votes and are Colorado, Florida, Iowa, Michigan, Nevada, New Hampshire, North Carolina, Ohio, Pennsylvania, Virginia and Wisconsin.

Read more: http://www.foxnews.com/politics/2012/10/07/rasmussen-poll-romney-ahead-4-47-percent-in-first-full-post-debate-survey/#ixzz28dZNM7eW​

 

It seems to me that Romney was predicted to "win" the first debate, the "news" media said so, and it was so. I haven't heard what their "predictions" for the next two debates are, but my guess is Obama will "win" the last one.

I tell ya, it's a conspiracy! See what happens when I read too many of Kat Sung's posts?

 

I hadn't heard such predictions, but I've never put much trust in predictions anyway.

 

That's what I saw, anyway. Maybe it just wasn't as obvious as I thought it was though, and I "read" people pretty well.

 

Romney certainly won the liars poll.

 

You do know that a nationwide poll means almost nothing to the election right? The election is determined by a state-by-state contest in which we already know which states Obama will win and we know which states Romney will win and the only question is the toss up states which Obama has been increasing his lead as of late. I guess if you need something to crow about, this poll serves that purpose but Obama is still going to win next month.

 

Chuck Todd (who is an openly liberal member of the Obama media) oddly enough showed some statistics on Sunday that should cause concern among BO supporters. Young voters, 1st time (in 2008) voters and Hispanics (demographics most likely to vote for BO) were 7-10% less likely to vote in 2012 than in 2008 while Republicans and seniors (demographics most likely to vote for Romney) were 10-15% more likely to vote in 2012

 

http://www.gop.com/news/research/12-obama-debate-lies-and-counting/
I won't bore you with the complete lists.
http://voices.yahoo.com/health-care-debate-filled-lies-obama-4074139.html

 

I don't put much stock in your predictions. You predicted that Scott Walker would lose. You predicted that Hillary Clinton would be chosen as Obama's running mate in 2012. So far, you're not doing too well.

I'm not saying Obama may not win. This election is extremely tight and could go either way. Let's hope it's not a repeat of the 2000 election when the loser Al Gore and his lawyers dragged it on for what seemed like forever.

Polling numbers in many swing states are now becoming even tighter. We still have a month until the election and many things could still happen. We haven't seen an "October Surprise" yet (unless you want to count Obama getting trounced in the first debate). Here's some data on recent polling in the swing states:

Swing state polling snapshot

11:22 am October 8, 2012, by Jamie Dupree
There are all sorts of clues to look at it in the race for the White House with just over four weeks until Election Day, but let's take a snapshot of the Obama-Romney race in the ten main swing states.
There have been some interesting poll numbers in recent days from a few states showing a bump for Mitt Romney in the wake of last week's debate victory; in coming days, it will be important to note whether that is just a blip or a real trend.
* Florida (29 Electoral Votes) - Mitt Romney stumped in Florida both on Saturday and Sunday, his first full weekend of campaigning in months. Two new polls out on Friday - which were both taken after the first debate - showed Romney ahead in Florida. The poll average in this state is now a tie.
* Ohio (18) - The President has spent a lot of time in Ohio of late (he will be back on Wednesday again) and it shows, as the poll average has him leading by 3 percent; but two polls taken after the first debate showed a definite bump for Romney. Hopefully we will see more data this week from the Buckeye State.
* Michigan (16) - Still waiting for post-debate polls in the Wolverine State, which has been trending much more to the Democrats in recent weeks. The average shows the President ahead by 10 points. My gut tells me if Ohio is close, Michigan can't be double digits right now.
* North Carolina (15) - After the Democratic National Convention in Charlotte, the President enjoyed a big bump in the polls in the Tar Heel State - but that seems to have waned in recent weeks, as several polls put Romney ahead. That may increase after last week's good debate for the GOP challenger.
* Virginia (13) - The Old Dominion has seen a lot of the two candidates in recent weeks; Romney was there after last week's debate and is back again on Monday with two more events. Even before the first debate, the polls had started to close in Virginia, with three straight polls that had the President ahead by only two points. Two polls taken after the debate gave Romney a narrow lead, while another had Obama still ahead.
* Wisconsin (10) - Wisconsin is another swing state that went big for the Democrats in the aftermath of the Democratic convention, with several polls giving the President a double digit lead. One poll taken after last week's debate by PPP had that lead down to just 2 points. "There's also been a big uptick in Republican enthusiasm about the election," the PPP poll concluded.
* Colorado (9) - Voters in the Centennial State got to see the candidates up close before and after last week's debate in Denver, where the polls have been on both sides of the ledger in recent weeks, resulting in a poll average that's a tie, as the race has swung back from a slight edge for the Democrats.
* Iowa (6) - Iowa was Ground Zero when this race began in the cold of January and it still matters in October. The polls give the President an average lead of 3.5% at this point; the only poll since the debate was from Rasmussen, which gave the President a two point edge. You can sense the overall interest in the Hawkeye State, as over 110,000 absentee ballots are already in, over 60% of them from Democrats.
* Nevada (6) - This is another state that has trended for the President in the polls, but we haven't seen any data since the first debate. It is probably worth remembering that two years ago, Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid trailed in the polls all the way until Election Day, and then won, so take the polling with a pinch of salt.
* New Hampshire (4) - You would think that the Granite State would be more receptive to their next door neighbor, the former Governor of Massachusetts, a man who also owns a vacation home on Lake Winnipesaukee, but that's not the case. One poll in late September gave the President a 15 point lead. But just like in Nevada, let's remember a lesson from 2008, when the polls said Barack Obama would knock out Hillary Clinton in the Democratic Primary. That didn't happen.
At this point, the edge is still with the President, but we saw how last week's debate didn't go according to conventional wisdom.
Just over four weeks to go.
http://blogs.ajc.com/jamie-dupree-washington-insider/2012/10/08/swing-state-polling-snapshot/

 

It's not looking good for post-debate Obama, especially with women voters:

Mitt Romney's post-debate surge appears to have all but wiped out President Obama's once double-digit lead among women voters. ​

A new Pew Research Center survey depicted a remarkable swing in the numbers, with Romney pulling even among women in polling late last week. In September, the same polling outfit showed Obama leading by 18 points among women. ​

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Among all likely voters surveyed, Romney climbed from an 8-point deficit last month to a 4-point lead. ​

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There's little question that his debate performance has played a role. A separate Gallup survey showed registered voters deemed Romney the winner by 72-20 percent, marking the biggest debate victory in Gallup's recorded history. ​

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The Pew poll showed a similarly big victory for Romney in the debate, and it appeared to translate into gains among several groups of voters. The Oct. 4-7 survey of 1,112 likely voters showed Romney leading 49-45 percent overall. ​

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Among all registered voters surveyed, the two candidates also were tied. ​

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With Romney making gains both nationally and in the swing states, he and President Obama were headed to the battleground of Ohio Tuesday to press their case. ​

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Romney has tried to broaden his message with the election now just four weeks away, delivering a major foreign policy speech Monday in Virginia ahead of the final two debates that will deal more with overseas affairs. ​

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A vice presidential debate is set for this Thursday. ​

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An Obama campaign official tried to downplay the results of the latest Pew poll. ​

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"The state of the race is what it has been, which is a close and competitive race in key states with a slight lean toward the president," the official said. ​

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But the Pew poll showed the trendlines working in Romney's favor, at least for now. ​

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His favorable rating hit 50 percent for the first time in that survey, while Obama's fell from 55 to 49 percent. ​

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The poll also showed voters putting more faith in Romney on issues ranging from the economy to the budget deficit. The two are even, at 44 percent each, on the question of who is the stronger leader. Obama led on that question by 13 points last month.​

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Read more: http://www.foxnews.com/politics/2012/10/09/romney-surges-in-new-poll-makes-across-board-gains-on-heels-debate/#ixzz28oSqkidK​

 

Tuesday, October 09, 2012

The Rasmussen Reports daily Presidential Tracking Poll for Tuesday shows Mitt Romney and President Obama each attracting support from 48% of voters nationwide. One percent (1%) prefers some other candidate, and three percent (3%) are undecided.

Romney’s support is a bit more solid than the president’s at this point in time. Forty-five percent (45%) of voters are “certain” they will vote for Romney and not change their minds. Forty-one percent (41%) are certain they will vote for Obama.

Matchup results are updated daily at 9:30 a.m. Eastern (sign up for free daily e-mail update).

Our daily Swing State update is released at 10:00 a.m. Eastern. Today’s results will show Romney slightly ahead in the 11 key swing states. (very significant) This is a significant change. For virtually the entire campaign, Obama has done better in the swing states than in the national averages. It remains to be seen whether this is a lasting change in the race or merely a temporary aberration.

Scott Rasmussen’s weekly newspaper column notes that Obama May Need a Reagan Comeback if he wants to keep his job.

Post-debate polling shows that Romney and the president are within two points of each other in Virginia, Ohio, Florida, Iowa and Colorado. All remain Toss-Ups in the Rasmussen Reports Electoral College Projections. New data from Nevada will be released at noon Eastern today.

 

NBC reported this morning that Romney holds a 3% advantage over BO among "likely voters"

 

So much for the 'war on women'. The Pew Research Center Poll October 4-7 shows 47% to 47%. This same poll for September 12-16 was 56% Obama to 37% Romney. This was women's poll.

 

Funny that you guys have spend that last few weeks saying the polls were all wrong but now for some strange reason....

 

Funny that you have spent the last few weeks saying the poll were all correct but now for some strange reason....

 

That's a convenient dodge. So what else is new eh?

I've always said that polls are just snapshots. I do believe that the race has tightened because it always tightens the final month. ALWAYS! You on the other hand only believe that polls that agree with your biases. You are consistent in that respect anyway.

 

Tain't nothing new about you taking both sides of the same issue and accuse us of lying. I am just surprised there are not any insults included.

 

I'm astonished the Parrot isn't on here saying the exact same things...

 

Romney’s Strong Debate Performance Erases Obama’s Lead
Great news for Romney:

October 8, 2012

Mitt Romney no longer trails Barack Obama in the Pew Research Center’s presidential election polling. By about three-to-one, voters say Romney did a better job than Obama in the Oct. 3 debate, and the Republican is now better regarded on most personal dimensions and on most issues than he was in September. Romney is seen as the candidate who has new ideas and is viewed as better able than Obama to improve the jobs situation and reduce the budget deficit.

Fully 66% of registered voters say Romney did the better job in last Wednesday’s debate, compared with just 20% who say Obama did better. A majority (64%) of voters who watched the debate describe it as mostly informative; just 26% say it was mostly confusing.

In turn, Romney has drawn even with Obama in the presidential race among registered voters (46% to 46%) after trailing by nine points (42% to 51%) in September. Among likely voters, Romney holds a slight 49% to 45% edge over Obama. He trailed by eight points among likely voters last month.


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http://www.people-press.org/2012/10/08/romneys-strong-debate-performance-erases-obamas-lead/

 

You weren't there, liar.