No bump for Romney After Tampa - Predict bump for Obama After Charlotte

I'm going to go with around a 4 point bump once Charlotte is all said and done. There just isn't much wiggle room left so it should be a small bump.



Polls show little to no bump for Romney following Republican National Convention

It is still early, but three polls done after the Republican National Convention in Tampa show nominee Mitt Romney with either no bump at all, or a very little bump that does little to change the race. At the beginning of the Republican National Convention, Romney advisers predicted that Romney may gain as much as 11 points in the polls once he was “re-introduced” to the public. One Romney adviser is now trying to lower those expectations, which is understandable given the polling data cited below.

The best poll for Romney comes from Rasmussen Reports. A poll released today from Rasmussen shows Romney ahead of Obama 48 percent to 44 percent. Rasmussen’s poll was conducted exclusively after Romney delivered his acceptance in Tampa last Thursday. While those numbers are certainly positive for Romney, the numbers are little changed from Rasmussen’s data before the Republican National Convention, when the pollster had Romney with a two-point lead in the polls. According to Nate Silver of the New York Times, conventions have given a presidential candidate an average bounce of 5-6 points since 1964, and the challenger usually benefits more than the incumbent. However, Rasmussen only has Romney gaining two points.

Another poll from Reuters/Ipsos has worse post-convention numbers for Romney. According to a Reuters released yesterday, President Obama currently leads Romney 44 percent to 43 percent. The Reuters poll was specifically designed to measure a potential Romney bump by polling respondents each day of the convention season. Reuters initially had Romney gaining one point on Friday and 2 points on Thursday, but Romney’s bump has now entirely disappeared according to the Reuters data.

The last poll from Gallup also shows no real help for Romney from the RNC. A Gallup poll released yesterday shows President Obama leading 47 percent to 46 percent for Romney. To be fair, Gallup’s poll may not include all of a Romney bump since Gallup uses a seven-day tracking poll, and therefore includes many responses before or during the Republican National Convention. Still, at the beginning of the Republican National Convention Gallup had Romney with a one-point lead on Obama, so according to their data Romney actually lost ground to Obama during the convention.

While Romney appears to have gained little to nothing at his convention, the data might also indicate that President Obama has little to gain at the Democratic National Convention in Charlotte this week. If voters were turned off by the message they saw in Tampa then the Democrats might be able to see more gains by communicating a different message in Charlotte. However, if voters are simply ignoring or discounting what they hear at the conventions then Obama is also likely to see little-to-no bump in the polls, and the conventions will be nothing than a lot of sound and fury, signifying nothing.

 

Oh c'mon, the conventions are just fluff for the most part, aren't they?
Romney got a portion of his "bounce" prior to the convention when he made the brilliant move of selecting Paul Ryan as his VP (in contrast to BO picking Crazy Joe Biden).

 

Just shut up and make a prediction.

 

My prediction? Romney/Ryan will defeat BO/Crazy Joe handily in Nov.
If you are talking about the conventions, I wouldn't be surprised in the least if BO gets a bigger bump. After all, it's obvious the dim voting bloc is easily swayed by celebrities, half-truths (trying to be nice by not saying "lies") and broken promises.

 

My prediction - they are going to lose the Jewish vote

In total, I would guess a 1-2 point bump very short lived.

 

My prediction? It is going to be a close race.

http://news.yahoo.com/good-news-mitt-romney-swing-state-polls-172200803.html

 

Me I think that quite possibly one of the two might just win it

 

You're only half right. It's only quite possible for one of them.

 

That makes me right as I did say 1 of the 2 LOL

 

It's advantage Romney after Obama fails to move the needle​

Thursday night in Charlotte, Barack Obama doubled down on his liberalism, articulating the case for big government, greater regulation, and more spending (which he calls "investing"). He defined a choice that is starkly ideological, courageously embracing the left. We have not seen such positioning since the days of Mike Dukakis and Walter Mondale. And with good reason: the American people are conservative.​

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Asked in a recent poll, "would you rather that government get out of your way or lend you a hand?" Americans voted 54% to 35% for the government to get out of the way. It was odd to watch a president commit political suicide by so brazen and overt an embrace of the 35% and a repudiation of the 54%.​

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While eloquent as he accepted his party's nomination, Obama failed to go after Mitt Romney in his speech and throughout the whole Democratic convention. "The folks in Tampa," "the Republican establishment" and "the conservative Congress" all came in for a thrashing. Mitt Romney was not on the list in both Clinton and Obama's speeches. In fact, his name was hardly mentioned -- an odd occurrence in view of the over $100 million Obama has spent on ads attacking Romney.​

Overall, tonight left America with the impression that Obama saved GM, killed Bin Laden, and passed ObamaCare (which most of us don't like). What a thin, thin record on which to base a plea for reelection.​

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The result of these two conventions is a decided advantage for Romney.​

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Dick Morris is a Fox News contributor and author. His latest book is "Screwed!: How Foreign Countries Are Ripping America Off and Plundering Our Economy-and How Our Leaders Help Them Do It." Visit his website: www.dickmorris.com and follow him on Twitter@dickmorris.​

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Read more: http://www.foxnews.com/opinion/2012/09/07/it-advantage-romney-after-obama-fails-to-move-needle-in-charlotte/#ixzz25o4aSTw9​

 

I think Fox might want to give it a couple of days but nothing like jumping the gun with your biased opinion anyway. Toe sucking Dick Morris is really not the bast source. Besides, only one of your ilk wasn't so cowardly that he couldn't make a guess. You remain in the cowardly category.

 

Un-hu! I'm good, I'm good and the Dems are even better...

These are the three daily trackers. The numbers in parenthesis are yesterday's numbers. The convention bounce is the difference between the last pre-convention poll and today's.

Rasmussen (3-day rolling sample)
Obama 46 (45)
Romney 44 (46)
Obama bounce: +5 (A point over what I predicted)

Gallup (7-day rolling sample for horserace, 3-day for favorabilities)
Obama 49
Romney 45
Obama bounce: +4 (What I predicted)

Reuters/Ipsos (4-day rolling sample) (See update II below)
Obama 46 (46 44)
Romney 44 (44 45)
Obama bounce: +4 (What I predicted)

Damn I am good!!!!

 

Breaking: Gallup Reports Major DNC 'Bounce' for Obama

Greg Mitchell on September 7, 2012 - 1:23 PM ET
SUNDAY UPDATE Rasmussen boosts Obama lead from 2% to 4%. Gallup gives him another point, up to 5%. Panic in Romney camp? Now they know he actually has to win the debates, not just hold his own.
SATURDAY UPDATE Three polls, even the normally unfriendly Rasmussen, all recorded clear "bumps" for Obama today, with Gallup and Reuters-Ipsos providing more clear evidence of a DNC bounce. Consensus finds Obama with healthy 4% lead right now.

 

I remember pep rallies in high school. I remember skipping out during pep rallies...(looks around)...this looks like a @#$%^&* pep rally lol

 

Friday, September 14, 2012

The Rasmussen Reports daily Presidential Tracking Poll for Friday shows Mitt Romney attracting support from 48% of voters nationwide, while President Obama earns 45% of the vote. Two percent (2%) prefer some other candidate, and five percent (5%) are undecided. See daily tracking history.

The recent numbers may have been impacted by a number of factors. Clearly, one is the fading of the president’s convention bounce. Last week, Scott Rasmussen anticipated this fade by noting that the conventions would have no lasting impact on the race.

Additionally, last week’s jobs report was disappointing. However, consumer confidence did not fall in the wake of that report. That may be due to the fact that the poor results were no surprise to consumers. Confidence also may have been impacted by the Fed decision to provide additional stimulus. That decision boosted both the stock market and investor confidence. Nearly half of all consumers are also investors.

Finally, it is way too early to evaluate the political impact, if any, from recent events in the Middle East. Today’s tracking data shows that despite the extensive news coverage of Arab attacks on U.S. embassies, only six percent (6%) of voters consider national security issues the most important during this election cycle. That’s little changed from five percent (5%) before the attacks began. Additionally, voters currently trust the president more than Romney on national security issues by a narrow 46% to 43% margin. That, too, is little changed following recent events.

http://www.rasmussenreports.com/pub...ministration/daily_presidential_tracking_poll