8% Voter Change

Discussion in 'Politics' started by CoinBlazer, Oct 21, 2020.

  1. CoinBlazer

    CoinBlazer de omnibus dubitandum

    2 Former speechwriters for President Obama have a podcast called Pod Save America. And today they spoke about the statistical likelihood of a Trump victory even with the lagging in the polls. They noted that Trump was down to Hillary in 2016 about the same margin and still had major wins in the Electoral College. They noted that Republican voter and party registration is slightly outpacing Democratic registration and the most interesting claim that stuck out the me, is they claim that based on 2016 voting trends, poll trends and historical analysis, that if 4% of Trump voter base vote in 2020 that didn’t vote in 2016, particularly white middle class, suburbanites, and if 4% of people of color, minorities and generally liberal demographics such as LGBT people that voted in 2016 but don’t vote in 2020 or don’t vote blue, they speechwriters believe that Trump would have a nearly razors edge win.
    Their main message on that Podcast episode is they do not believe that either side will have a landslide and that it will come down to the wire.

    Now this is all just claims and personally I can’t verify any of the data they stated in the podcast but I still would find this information reasonably credible. What would you say regarding their 8% voter claim or just the general chances of a Trump or Biden win?
     
  2. GeneWright

    GeneWright Well-Known Member

    I'd say 8% is gigantic, and would make sense with current polling margins. I'm not sure what the margin of victory will be like, but I'm starting to get confident in a Biden win. Not complacent, just confident. Dems are also now favored to control the Senate and highly favored to keep control of the house.
     
  3. CoinBlazer

    CoinBlazer de omnibus dubitandum

    True, I would even admit that Trump is fighting a uphill battle, and even if the 8% claim held in November, they noted still it would be a 50/50 way, so essentially the Podcasters are claiming Trump needs that 8% shift to even have a shot, and your right, 8% is huge.
     
  4. JohnHamilton
    Pensive

    JohnHamilton Well-Known Member

    Eight percent is huge, but the Electoral College determines the election, not the national popular vote. It will be very tough for Trump to win, but it's not impossible.
     
  5. toughcoins

    toughcoins Rarely is the liberal viewpoint tainted by realism

    Regarding just the general chances of a Trump win, I think they are better than even odds.

    With early votes in, and democrats having cast their votes already, it’s time for republicans and independents to exercise rationality over emotionality . . . To show that mass media no longer determines the outcome in elections.

    Coupled with the recently realized groundswell of Hispanic and Black male support, there are many independents who recognize that, while Trump downplays how much we should cower to COVID, they also know that Biden can do little to nothing that is fundamentally different than what Trump has already done to combat the virus.

    All of Biden’s complaints, of telling us he’ll do better than Trump is good theater but he cannot force us to wear masks. That would be unconstitutional. I’ll still be wearing mine, but he cannot force me to. America knows this. Some go without as an act of defiance against the controlling demands of liberal America, leaving the media free to claim that Trump convinced them not to wear them . . . A stupid assertion, and voters know it . . . No traction there.

    Biden could shut down all commerce to stifle the virus, but that would be a colossal mistake. America consumes food, water, medicine and energy at far too great a rate to recover from a shutdown of those industries and associated distribution systems.

    Biden shutting down dining and drinking establishments seems feasible, but no more so than governors already preparing to go through a second round of the same.

    No, Joe truly has nothing novel to offer in the way of new solutions . . . Just like threatening that Republicans would push the wheelchair-bound elderly off a cliff, he’s playing on our fears of a virus that will continue to work its way across our nation. We can slow it down, but the evidence implies we cannot eradicate it.

    As President Trump so aptly put it, we cannot afford for the cure to be worse than the problem.

    With the public recognizing the truth in that statement, they will vote for Trump over Biden.
     
    Last edited: Nov 1, 2020
  6. GeneWright

    GeneWright Well-Known Member

    538 gives Trump a 10% chance of winning currently. Not impossible by any means, but fairly safe for Biden.

    They also give the following for Senate/house:

    77% chance Dems control the Senate

    98% chance Dems control the house

    They update it really often so it's been fun to watch over time.

    https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2020-election-forecast/
     
  7. FryDaddyJr

    FryDaddyJr Well-Known Member

    I see toughie is still in his rabbit hole
     
  8. toughcoins

    toughcoins Rarely is the liberal viewpoint tainted by realism


    To the chagrin of liberals, my perspective is much more realistic than the pollsters.

    I think four years ago, independents cast more votes for Hillary that this year will not go to Biden. Why? Because 4 years ago they didn’t believe Trump had it in him to tackle the requirements of what has traditionally been a politician’s office. Not only has Trump delivered on his commitments, but he has done so in the face of extraordinary resistance from the opposition party.

    Unlike so many recent presidents, this guy can walk and chew gum at the same time. It’s a good day for Biden if he can do either one.

    The American People see that, and know Trump, despite his lack of style, is the more substantive leader.

    Voter’s reluctance to tip the Republican hand until Election Day is a difficult thing for pollsters to grasp, let alone devise a system to account for.
     
    Last edited: Nov 1, 2020
  9. FryDaddyJr

    FryDaddyJr Well-Known Member

    you remind me of Karl Rove when he wouldn't concede the Romney loss to Obama
     
  10. toughcoins

    toughcoins Rarely is the liberal viewpoint tainted by realism

    Obama's were victories of novelty . . . nothing more. A couple of 4 year gambles that electing an overconfident under-qualified black man to be president before the right black man had run were major national mistakes.
     
  11. FryDaddyJr

    FryDaddyJr Well-Known Member

    trumps victory was the squeaker. the last victory for dumb white racists. demographics and inevitability
     

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